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Marine Ecosystems

Marine Ecosystems

Workpackage 7: Quantifying Uncertainty in Marine Ecosystems

Marine ecosystems supply critical goods such as food, renewable energy and transport, as well as crucial but less tangible services (e.g. climate regulation, waste assimilation) to society. Human exploitation of the seas, together with environmental change, is affecting marine ecosystems at a pace that is challenging our ability to provide innovative, effective and adaptive scientific solutions. These changes will all impact on the overall trophodynamic structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. Our knowledge of driver impacts was limited to the climate envelope over which measurements have been made; the use of dynamic simulation models with feedbacks allowed us to assess driver impacts outside of the observed envelope. We already had the modelling tools to make simulations of multiple ecosystem states. Significant progress was made by developing the tools to quantify the uncertainties associated with such simulations.

Workpackage leader: Icarus Allen (Plymouth)

Role: worked with WP1-4 to address project objectives 2-7 for the case of marine ecosystems.