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Crop Production

Crop Production

Workpackage 5: Quantifying future risk to crop production

Understanding how crops react to climate change, and being able to predict yields, assist the global effort to secure food supplies in some of the world’s poorest nations.

As population increases, and as the in emerging economies shift from
vegetable to meat, more and more land is needed in order to grow food.
There are also many other pressures on land use, for example the growing
of biofuels in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Add to this the
challenge of adapting food production to climate change, and it rapidly
becomes clear that ensuring a stable food supply is critical. The food
price spikes seen in recent years, some associated with crop failure in
Russia and Australia, are testimony to this.

Progress to date in simulating the impact of climate variability and
change on crop yield has proceeded along two parallel lines: firstly, a
number of pre-existing crop simulation models, which were originally
designed for supporting farmer decision making, have been developed to
examine a range of particular regions and scenarios. Secondly, a focus
on improving methodologies has lead to a number of studies designing and
using coarser, regional-scale models for a range of scientific
questions. EQUIP integrated more closely this second strand of work
with the design and evaluation of the climate ensembles on which the
crop predictions rely.

Contributing: PI Ed Hawkins and Researcher Co-I Tom Osborne (Reading)

Role: worked with WP1-4 to address project objectives 2-7 for the case of crop production.

Links

Homepage of Workpackage leader: http://www.see.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.challinor

The Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org/