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Strengthening resilience through improved treatment of uncertainty in weather, climate and impacts

Strengthening resilience through improved treatment of uncertainty in weather, climate and impacts

Strengthening resilience through improved treatment of uncertainty in weather, climate and impacts

April 9th, 2013

Strengthening resilience through improved treatment of uncertainty in weather, climate and impacts March 13th and 14th 2013, London.

The meeting reviewed EQUIP progress and took a forward-looking view of uncertainty quantification at both weather and climate timescales. Sessions focused on Managing uncertainty in climate and its impacts, Quantifying uncertainty on timescales of days to seasons and Communication of uncertainty and knowledge exchange. The event was attended by participants from research organisations, funding agencies, government, development agencies and insurance organisations.

Please click on the link below for a copy of the agenda:
Final EQUIP Meeting Agenda

Presentation slides from the speakers are available below.

Day 1: Managing uncertainty in climate and its impacts

Session 1: Methods for quantifying uncertainty (Chair: Chris Ferro, Exeter)

Challenges in quantifying uncertainty using state of the art climate models – D Sexton

Can we really reduce uncertainty in climate forecasts – J Christensen

Testing climate forecasts – M Allen (pending approval)

Session 2: Evaluating skill and relevance (Chair: Helen Hanlon, Met Office)

Judging the credibility of climate projections – C Ferro (please email C.A.T.Ferro@exeter.ac.uk for slides)

Assessing skill from retrospective forecasts – D Smith

Near-term prediction of impact-relevant heatwave indices – H Hanlon

Equipping Users While Maintaining the Credibility of Science – D Stainforth

Session 3: Towards robust climate change risk assessment (Chair: Jim Hall, Oxford)

Climate change risk assessment. missing the wood for the trees – R Wilby

Climate change risk assessment. lessons from EQUIP – A Challinor

Day 2: Quantifying uncertainty on timescales of days to seasons

Session 1: Quantifying sub-seasonal uncertainty (Chair: Steve Woolnough, Reading)
On the reliability of seasonal forecasts – A Weisheimer

Variability of West African weather systems – C Thorncroft

Session 2: Improved impacts modelling (Chair: Andy Challinor, Leeds)

Hydrology weather and groundwater – R Taylor

The use of a high resolution weather ensemble for West Africa for assessing crop productivity – L Garcia-Carreras

Session 3: Communication of uncertainty and knowledge exchange (Chair: Emma Visman, KLC, and Andy Morse, Liverpool)

How well can climate information support efforts to strengthen community resilience – A Morse

Supporting the engagement of climate science across the range of humanitarian development and community users – E Visman

Supporting the engagement of climate science across the range of humanitarian development and community users – E Visman

Exchange between climate scientists and humanitarian and development policymakers and community users: demonstration studies in Kenya and Senegal – E Visman (pending approval)

Climate information to support agricultural livelihoods – R Ewbank

Potential for using weather and climate information to support community resilience across timescales – M Kilavi