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EQUIP scientists present views on dealing with uncertainty in crop-climate models and the challenges we face when predicting future changes in extremes

EQUIP scientists present views on dealing with uncertainty in crop-climate models and the challenges we face when predicting future changes in extremes

EQUIP scientists present views on dealing with uncertainty in crop-climate models and the challenges we face when predicting future changes in extremes

August 23rd, 2011

Two articles in nature journals highlighting the value of robust treatments of uncertainty:

Global studies using crop-climate models are becoming increasingly common. How should such studies deal with uncertainty? Here, an EQUIP scientist argues that a focus on fundamental bio-physical processes is needed. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n2/full/nclimate1098.html

Following an interdisciplinary workshop on climate extremes that brought together climate scientists, statisticians and ecologists, this article was written to give a brief overview of what we already know of environmental extremes and the challenges we face in attempting to study the response of extremes to a changing climate. We have emphasised the importance of studying extremes as extreme climatic events can cause widespread damage and have been projected to become more frequent as the world warms. However, it is still not always clear which extremes have the largest impact, and how and why they are changing. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n3/abs/ngeo1090.html