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EQUIP Outputs

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News Archive for January, 2015

  • EQUIP Outputs

    January 27th, 2015

    The EQUIP Special Issue is nearly complete, the following list includes all the Special Issue published papers.

    EQUIP Publications List

    • Calel, R., Stainforth, D.A., and Dietz, S, (2013),Tall tales and Fat tails: The science and economics of extreme warming, Climatic Change, 1-15.
    • Caminadea, C., Kovatsc, S., Rocklovd, J., Tompkinse, A.M., Morseb, A.P., Colón-Gonzáleze, F.J., Stenlundd, H., Martensf, P and Lloyd, S.J, (2014), Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution, (2014), PNAS March 4, vol. 111 no. 9 3286-3291.
    • Challinor, A. J (2011). Fully EQUIPed – how climate scientists are quantifying uncertainty, Planet Earth, Spring 2011, 12-13.
    • Challinor, A.J, (2011). Agriculture: Forecasting food, Nature Climate Change, Volume:1, Pages: 103–104.
    • Challinor, A.J, et al (2010) Environ. Res. Lett. 5 034012.
    • Challinor, A.J., Simelton, E.S., Fraser, E.D.G., Hemming, D., Collins, M (2010) Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China, Environmental Research Letters, 5.
    • Challinor, A.J., Thornton, P., Smith, M.S (2013) Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, pp.2-7.
    • Challinor, A.J., Watson, J., Lobell, D.B., Howden, S.M., Smith, D.R., Chhetri, N, (2014) A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation Nature Climate Change, Volume:4, Pages: 287–291.
    • Collins, M., Fricker, T., Hermanson, L (2011). From observations to forecasts – Part 9: what is decadal forecasting?, Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 66, Issue 6, pages 160–164.
    • Ferro, C, (2013) Fair scores for ensemble forecasts, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140: 1917–1923, July 2014.
    • Ferro, C.A.T & Fricker, T.E (2012). A bias-corrected decomposition of the Brier score, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 138, Issue 668, pages 1954–1960.
    • Fricker, T.E., Ferro, C.A.T., Stephenson, D.B, (2013). Three recommendations for evaluating climate predictions, Meteorological Applications, Volume 20, Issue 2, pages 246–255.
    • Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer ,G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, R., Hawkins, E., Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., Stockdale, T., Burgman, R., Greene A. M., Kushnir, Y., Newman, M., Carton, J., Fukumori, I., Delworth, T, (2012) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments, Climate Dynamics, Volume 40, Issue 1-2, pp 245-272.
    • Hanlon, H. M., Hegerl, G. C., Tett, S. F. B. & Smith, D. M. (2013), Can a decadal forecasting system predict temperature extreme indices? Journal of Climate. 26, 11, p. 3728-3744.
    • Hanlon, H. M., Morak, S., Hegerl, G. C (2013), Detection and Prediction of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with a multi-model ensemble, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Volume 118, Issue 17, pages 9631–9641, 16 September 2013.
    • Hanlon, H., Hegerl, G. C., and Tett, S.F.B (2014): Near-term prediction of impact relevant heatwave extremes. Climatic Change, 1-16.
    • Hanlon, H., Morak, S., Heger,l G (2013), Detection and Prediction of mean and extreme European Summer temperatures with a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Volume 118, Issue 17, pages 9631–9641, 16 September 2013.
    • Hawkins, E., Fricker, T.E., Challinor, A.J., Ferro, C.A.T., Ho, C.K & Osborne, T.M, 2013, ‘Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s’, Global Change Biology, 19, 937.
    • Hawkins, E., Osborne,T.M., Kit Ho, C., Challinor, A.J,(2013). Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 170, Pages 19–31.
    • Hegerl, G.C., Hanlon, H., Beierkuhnlein, C, (2011). Climate Science: Elusive extremes Nature Geoscience Volume: 4, Pages:142–143.
    • Lopez, A., Suckling, E. B., Otto, F.E.L., Lorenz, A., Rowlands, D., Allen, M.R, (2014) Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts. Climatic Change, 1-15.
    • Lorenz, S., Dessai, S., Paavola J., Forster, P.M, (2013). The communication of physical science uncertainty in European National Adaptation Strategies. Climatic Change, 1-13.
    • Otto, F. E. L., Massey, N., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Jones, R. G., Allen, M. R. (2012). Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 39, Issue 4.
    • Otto, F.E.L., Ferro, C.A.T., Fricker, T.E., Suckling, E.B, (2013) On judging the credibility of climate predictions Climatic Change, 1-14.
    • Otto, F.E.L., Jones, R.G., Halladay, K. and Allen, M.R. (2013) Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, B, 368(1625).
    • Otto, F.E.L., Rosier, S.M., Allen, M.R., Massey, N.R., Rye, C.J. and Quintana, J.I. (2014) Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade. Climatic Change, 1-15.
    • Saux-Picart, S., Allen, J.I., Butenschön, M., Artioli, Y., de Mora, L., Wakelin, S.L. and Holt, J.T. (2014) What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea? Climatic Change, 1-15.
    • Smith, L.A., Suckling, E.B., Thompson, E., Maynard, T. and Du, H. (2015) Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation. Climatic Change, in press.
    • Smith, L A. and Stern, N (2011) Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369 (1956). 4818-4841.
    • Suckling, E.B and Smith, L A, (2013): An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*. J. Climate, 26, 9334–9347.
    • Tang, S and Dessai, S, (2012), Usable Science? The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 and Decision Support for Adaptation Planning, Weather, Climate and Society, 4.
    • 31. Vermuelen, S. J., Challinor, A.J., Thornton, P.K., Campbell, B.M., Eriyagama, N., Vertoort, J.M., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Läderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Nicklin, K.J., Hawkins, E., Smith D.R (2013). Addressing uncertainty inadaptation planning for agriculture. PNAS, Volume 110, (21), Pages 8357-8362.
    • Watson, J., Challinor, A.J (2013) The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional-scale crop model, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, pp.47-57.
    • Watson, J., Challinor, A.J., Fricker, T.E., Ferro, A.T, (2014). Comparing the effects of calibration and climate errors on a statistical crop model and a process-based crop model, Climatic Change.
    • Wesselink, A, Challinor, A.J., Watson, J., Beven, K., Allen, I., Hanlon, H., Lopez, A., Lorenz, S., Otto, F., Morse, A., Rye, C., Saux-Picard, S., Stainforth, D and Suckling, E (2014) Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review. Climatic Change.
    • Wesselink, A., Challinor A.J., Watson, J., Beven, K., Allen, I., Hanlon, H., Lopez, A., Lorenz, S.,  Otto, F., Morse, A., Rye, C., Saux-Picard, S., Stainforth, D., Suckling, E, 2014. Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review. Climatic Change, 1-14.