April 10th, 2013
The Special Issue brings together climate, statistical and impacts analyses in order to improve methods for quantifying, reducing and communicating uncertainty in predictions of climate and its impacts.
Climate models have for many years been run as ensembles, in order to capture the uncertainty associated with seasonal to multi-decadal prediction. Whilst it is increasingly common for climate impacts studies to be conducted using ensembles, there is generally less emphasis on capturing the full range of uncertainty. Further, it can be argued that it is not always desirable to do so. By bringing together a range of modellers and statisticians we have been able to conduct end-to-end (i.e. climate to impacts) analyses of uncertainty in models and data.
April 9th, 2013
Strengthening resilience through improved treatment of uncertainty in weather, climate and impacts March 13th and 14th 2013, London.
The meeting reviewed EQUIP progress and took a forward-looking view of uncertainty quantification at both weather and climate timescales. Sessions focused on Managing uncertainty in climate and its impacts, Quantifying uncertainty on timescales of days to seasons and Communication of uncertainty and knowledge exchange. The event was attended by participants from research organisations, funding agencies, government, development agencies and insurance organisations.
Please click on the link below for a copy of the agenda:
Final EQUIP Meeting Agenda
Presentation slides from the speakers are available below.
Day 1: Managing uncertainty in climate and its impacts
Session 1: Methods for quantifying uncertainty (Chair: Chris Ferro, Exeter)
Testing climate forecasts – M Allen (pending approval)
Session 2: Evaluating skill and relevance (Chair: Helen Hanlon, Met Office)
Judging the credibility of climate projections – C Ferro (please email C.A.T.Ferro@exeter.ac.uk for slides)
Session 3: Towards robust climate change risk assessment (Chair: Jim Hall, Oxford)
Day 2: Quantifying uncertainty on timescales of days to seasons
Session 1: Quantifying sub-seasonal uncertainty (Chair: Steve Woolnough, Reading)
On the reliability of seasonal forecasts – A Weisheimer
Session 2: Improved impacts modelling (Chair: Andy Challinor, Leeds)
Session 3: Communication of uncertainty and knowledge exchange (Chair: Emma Visman, KLC, and Andy Morse, Liverpool)
Exchange between climate scientists and humanitarian and development policymakers and community users: demonstration studies in Kenya and Senegal – E Visman (pending approval)